Seen this before?

Broken seats, dirty curtains, smelly bus floor!!

or

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Passengers waiting for the sleeper bus. of course, it’s at the side of the road. Where else would the bus stop be? ​

Enters FlixBus in the Indian market (February 2024)

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​FlixBus is a global mobility provider, since 2013, changing the way millions of people worldwide are traveling, present in more than 40 countries globally. It is a unique combination of a tech start-up, an e-commerce company, and a classic transport operator. 

Its a sustainable company, building for generations to come, aiming to become carbon neutral

Why India? Why now?

India has the largest addressable bus market in the world, approx $ 35bn. Bus transport dominates travel in India, with close to 52% of total travel volume (passenger kms/ per annum) being taken care of by buses. In major parts of the country, bus is the only public transport available. Even where railways are present, they are booked out months in advance.

India has only 149 airports for a population of 1.4 billion. Thus, the impact of introducing a high-quality bus service in the country will have many benefits.

Key factors:

• Growing consumer demand for quality bus services
• Improving road infrastructure
• Increasing online booking trends
• Digitization of toll payment methods
• Fragmented market with no dominant player. There are operators who have a fleet of 10-20 buses but there is no unified India-wide brand
• Increased product accessibility through the spread of mobile phones

Product Features

Here are some of Flixbus's core product features:

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1. Legroom - FlixBus guarantees you a seat with extra legroom. Our modern buses are equipped with comfortable seats and plenty of space. Beds are also available in selected rides
2. Charging points - Every seat has its own power socket or a USB charging point
3. Gender seating - This means that seats next to women will be automatically reserved for other women
4. Luggage - FlixBuses offer you enough space for your luggage. Store your hand luggage in the overhead compartments
5. Air conditioning - Every FlixBus bus has an AC in it
6. Safety - FlixBus provides real time GPS tracking, modern buses & host supervision

Additionally, they are providing extra product features to beat the competition.​

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Features & services being integrated in North Indian routes:

• Launching Wi-Fi services on-board
• Stringent internal standards - Before being deployed, every bus in their network undergoes a thorough check to meet these FlixBus standards, ensuring a consistent and high-quality travel experience across their fleet
• 24×7 incident response team - Flixbus provides a 24x7 response team incase their is an emergency, bus breakdown etc.
• Traffic control ward and two-point seat belts for all seats.
• Additionally, FlixBus ensures top-quality buses, all less than 3 years old and having travelled less than 500 km, equipped with ABS and ESC system for enhanced safety

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FlixBus has also opened new lounges in Delhi at Anand Vihar, RK Ashram and Kashmiri gate. These lounges provide a comfortable space for travellers to relax before their journeys, featuring amenities like Wi-Fi, cloakroom facilities, and clean resting areas. This initiative is part of FlixBus's strategy to enhance customer experience

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What are they doing right? How can they stay ahead?

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Let's delve into the key factors that will propel FlixBus to the top!​

1. Standardisation - Provide consistency every time a user books Flixbus. In India, people are not sure of the service & quality they'll get while booking a bus in India. Most people just know that they are traveling by Volvo. Many travellers are unsure about what to expect - whether it's punctuality, seating comfort, amenities like blankets and pillows in sleeper coaches, or the boarding process. With FlixBus, you can expect clear standards on these aspects, ensuring reliability and clarity throughout your journey
2. Technology - It's also a technology company, that partners with local companies to provide high quality service, bus fleet management, managing drivers and local partners - forging a partnership that not only facilitates seamless travel experiences but also empowers bus partners to thrive in their endeavours. Enabled technology innovations such as a pioneering booking and ticketing system, the FlixBus app, free Wifi and GPS live tracking, and automated punctuality management.
3. Bus drivers and operators - The drivers appointed by the company also work as the ticket verifier and are usually easy to communicate with, unlike most of my experiences with Indian private buses.

Challenges in India

Customers Challenges

• Lack of trust in online booking: Focus should be on building trust through secure transactions, verified operators, and transparent information
• Poor internet access: In regions with limited internet connectivity, accessing the bus app platform can be difficult. They should be tackled by developing a user-friendly mobile app that requires minimal data and offering offline booking options through partnerships with agents
• Cash-on-delivery preference: Many consumers prefer cash payments. Cash-on-delivery option can be introduced and FlixBus can partner with digital wallets to cater to diverse preferences

Operator Challenges

• Resistance to change: Traditional bus operators are hesitant to adopt to online booking systems
• Commission fees: Some operators think that the commission fees is high
• Integration challenges: Integrating FlixBus's platform with various bus operators' systems could be complex
• Illiteracy of operators and travel agents: Most bus operators and travel agents are illiterate. This can pose to be a limitation for FlixBus to grow faster and wider

ICP Identification

Link of the google form (FlixBus customer survey) - https://forms.gle/FuQMrncTnBmdW25f6​

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Vacationing 🏖️

When it comes to vacations, our potential customers seek value, unique experiences and quick getaways often planning trips around long weekends, academic breaks, festivals. They prefer using travel booking platforms like MakeMyTrip, Airbnb, Booking.com for finding accommodations and activities. Budget-friendly options are popular, with a focus on balancing relaxation and adventure. Customers are attracted to group travel deals and discounts, and they enjoy exploring new destinations and engaging in local activities.

Commute 🚃

Our potential customers generally use public transportation options such as buses and metros, along with ride-sharing services like Ola and Uber. They prioritize convenience, affordability, and comfort in their daily commutes. Many use their travel time productively, engaging in activities like reading, listening to podcasts, or catching up on work or studies.

Entertainment 📺​

When it comes to entertainment, our customers enjoy streaming a variety of content on platforms such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney+ Hotstar. They appreciate content that can be consumed in short bursts, like web series episodes, due to their busy lifestyles. Social media plays a significant role, with many spending considerable time on platforms like Instagram and TikTok, where they engage with and create trendy, short-form videos. Additionally, staying informed about industry trends and competitor offerings through travel documentaries, webinars, and travel vlogs on platforms like YouTube is common among those looking to enhance their knowledge and service offerings

Shopping 🛍

Our potential customers use online shopping apps like Flipkart, Meesho, Myntra, AJIO, Amazon.

Thrift shopping, both online and at local markets like Sarojini Nagar and Palika Bazar, is also popular among these users. They make purchases during sales events like the Great Indian Festival or during end-of-season sales, and they value loyalty programs and discounts that reward frequent purchases. They are also keen on bulk buying discounts. Local markets and trade fairs are often visited to find unique items. They also tend to shop while traveling to different cities/countries.

Understanding our customers

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Sreerag is a 29 year old IT software engineer residing in Delhi with his wife. He lives in a 2 BHK apartment and earns 1.5 lakh/month. His hometown is a little far from Delhi, in upper North India and he travels to meet his parents weekly/bo-weekly. He relies on public transportation and ride-sharing services like Ola and Uber for his daily commute, prioritizing convenience, punctuality, and comfort. He often uses this time to catch up on work emails, read, or listen to podcasts and audiobooks. His busy work-life balance often leaves him feeling tired, so he frequently looks for quick getaways around Delhi. These trips are usually unplanned and short (2-3 days), and he prefers to travel by bus, seeking premium buses that offer comfort, quality, Wi-Fi, and onboard toilets. For vacations, he prefers well-planned getaways during long weekends, using platforms like MakeMyTrip and Airbnb. Due to his busy schedule, he appreciates content that can be consumed in short bursts (like watching youtube videos, tech geeks) and he also enjoys live sports.

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Pallavi is a 20 year old, first year college student living in Delhi. She earns a stipend of 30k/month and lives in a girls hostel. She uses public transportation like buses and metros, and ride-sharing services for her daily commute to college and social activities, valuing affordability and convenience. Pallavi and her friends, being Gen Z, are keen on traveling to new places, often trying to replicate trendy travel experiences. Currently, the trend is to "work hard and travel harder," so she and her peers seek adrenaline fuelled adventures, exploring local destinations, going for treks during weekends, semester breaks, and holidays. She enjoys adventure and social activities, taking advantage of discounts and group travel deals. For entertainment, she frequently watches movies, web series, and educational content on streaming services like Netflix, YouTube, and Hotstar. She is also very active on social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok.

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Priyansh is a 38 year old businessman who runs a small travel agency which plans trips and excursions for students, working professionals, retired people. He uses a mix of personal vehicles and ride-sharing services for his business activities and client meetings. He specializes in organizing group vacations, trekking trips focusing on providing unique, curated experiences. His agency often organizes trips primarily for women, both for short and long weekend tours. Safety and hygiene are top priorities, so they reserve premium seats and look for good bus operators with educated, quality drivers. While entertainment isn't his primary focus, he stays informed about travel industry trends through documentaries, webinars, and travel vlogs on YouTube, using this information to enhance his service offerings.

Sanjeev is a 55 year old retired professional. He used to work in a large PSU bank and retired a few years ago. He lives in NCR region with his wife and kids in a 3 BHK apartment. He receives monthly pension and wants to spend remaining time traveling with his wife to religious places and peaceful places like mountains which are nearby. Also he travels to Himachal every 3 months where rest of his family lives. In shopping, they prioritize quality and convenience. During leisure time, they engage with educational, cultural, and spiritual content. Their travel experiences prioritize physical comfort and dietary needs, ensuring their well-being is supported throughout their journeys.

🎯 Deep dive into ICPs

Below is the additional insights captured after speaking to customers that have been using the product since it was launched in February 2024 and have used it to book more than 3,4 trips.

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Since FlixBus is new to the Indian market, I was able to capture data of last 4 months.

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Examining these ICPs will give us an understanding of the ideal goals, pain points, and about the behaviour of the user. This will tell me how the user interacts with the product, what is important for them and thus help me explore a real user experience.

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• The target of FlixBus should be to sell online bus tickets to educated middle class people of the country who had a basic know how of how to use the internet and designated agents.
• FlixBus can easily position itself to users who have taken international trips, as it is a major source of high-quality commute services abroad. This familiarity with FlixBus's high standards can build trust and attract these travelers.

After talking to the users there were some key insights for the product:

• Users want to see the distance they have traveled and the cities they have covered integrated in the FlixBus app.
• Users want the driver / conductor details to be shared at least a day before the travel and not an hour ago. They also want to E2E integration of google maps as that helps them easily navigate the pickup point, lounge location.

Lets look at TAM

​Total Addressable Market calculation:

To find the top ceiling of the market, lets take the total Indian population as of 2024 and drilling it down to Tier 1 with an age range of 18-55

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Taking average ticket price for bus = Rs 1,400

TAM = 7.8 * 1400

TAM = Rs 11,000 crore

Lets look at SAM and SOM

Service Addressable Market

SAM - Acquirable percentage of TAM

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From the TAM we are further drilling down to the next part where family income is greater than 6 LPA and the part of the population who uses internet and makes online purchases.

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Service Obtainable Market

SOM - Obtainable percentage of SAM

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SAM includes the possibility of people using other services such as RedBus, Paytm, Yatra, MMT etc.

Since FlixBus was launched in India 4 months ago in February 2024 and is currently operating in North India.

"FlixBus India has launched a star network in India which currently spans across Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, covering 46 destination cities"

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Hence, potential annual recurring revenue (ARR) = 0.25 Cr * 1500

= 400 crores​

Customer Journey 🛤️

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Below is the user flow:

1. Landing Page / Homepage: This is the page the user first visits. Data analytics and session starts from this page
2. Search bar: User searches for bus routes for travel. The search bar has to be prominent for user to perform search
3. Search result / Listing page: Once the origin, destination and dates are mentioned. Matching bus routes and available buses are shown on the listing page
4. Bus seat selection: User selects a particular bus and time slot and then proceeds towards selecting the seat
5. Pickup & Drop off: Post seat selection, user provides the pickup and drop off points
6. Passenger details: This is where all the passenger details are entered. Information about gender, email, contact information etc. are taken at this stage
7. Payment: Users makes the payment and checkout.
8. Ticket details: User receives booking confirmation along with the details of the bus and the seat number
9. Departure point: User reached the arrival point. Waits in the FlixBus lounge for the bus.
10. Arrival: User reached the destination and completes the ride.
11. Feedback: User post completion of the trip provides feedback, if any.

Customer Journey Map FlixBus_GrowthX.pdf​

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Jobs to be done (JTBD)

Onboarding Teardown

PDF of FlixBus onboarding Teardown: FlixBus Onboarding Teardown.pdf

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Finding FlixBus Activation Metric 📊

FlixBus is in the post PMF and early scaling stage and answering the below criteria would help us validate our activation metrics:

• Does the metric demonstrate user commitment?
• Does the user realize value from the product?
• Does the metric affect conversion?

Let's create few hypothesis based on user personas and customer journey captured. These hypothesis will help us narrow down to our Ideal activation metric which can be validated based on the criteria mentioned above.

Note: The FlixBus app is still in its early stages, focusing on integrating new offerings and services to expand its user base. Currently, it offers basic booking features, allows users to view past trips and bookings, and explore various routes served by FlixBus. The booking process is straightforward and streamlined, avoiding unnecessary account creations or sign-ups. This approach minimizes data consumption, crucial as buses often travel through areas with limited network coverage, while also simplifying app management.

1) Hypothesis: "2 successful bookings in 30 days"

Reason: Most of the users travel twice or thrice in a month, with average being twice / month. A frequency of 2 in a month means that the user is coming back to the product after experiencing the "AHA" moment to avail the customer value proposition ie. reaching destination in safely and on time.

2) Hypothesis: "20+ sessions of seat/route selection in the 1st week "

Reason: If the user is doing 20+ searches for routes or allocating seat, adding contact information in the first week means that there is high level of interest, engagement and active interaction with key booking functionalities shortly after onboarding. Users who perform frequent seat or route selections are likely exploring options, planning trips, and potentially preparing to make bookings

3) Hypothesis: "3+ payment failures in 1 day"

Reason: Multiple payment failures can frustrate users, impacting their commitment. Users experiencing payment issues may not fully realize the value of the service, potentially leading to abandoned bookings. If there are three or more payment failures, it indicates an intent to book, but issues such as poor network connectivity, app crashes, or a malfunctioning payment gateway prevent users from completing their booking.

4) Hypothesis: "40+ sessions of searching cities to visit in 15 days"

Reason: High number of searches indicate active exploration of travel options. User is investing time in finding suitable destinations, suggesting a strong interest in travel. This indicates a potential for future bookings as users narrow down their choices.

5) Hypothesis: "60+ mins spent in the first 10 days"

Reason: Longer session durations indicate higher engagement and interest in the content or services offered by FlixBus. Users who spend more time are likely exploring various features, planning trips, or interacting with content, indicating they perceive value in the platform.

6) Hypothesis: "1 detailed review and 5 star rating after 1st booking"

Reason: If a first time user is writing a detailed review and gives a high rating on the App / Play Store indicates satisfaction with the service. A positive feedback reflects a good experience and good ratings and reviews can attract and retain users

7) Hypothesis: "2 booking cancelations before taking their first trip"

Reason: Multiple cancellations before taking their first trip indicate a change in priority. Cancellations can happen due to schedule changes, health emergencies, external factors (calamity, peak rush, landslide, etc.), but it confirms that there is an intent to use the product services. Another reason could be better competitor pricing or dissatisfaction with the booking information - but these users can be converted and retained.

Validating the captured hypothesis:​

Key Metrics to track 📈

FlixBus provides a service which does not have a high frequency of usage and the company is also relatively new in the Indian market. Hence, metrics such as DAU/MAU, or retention rate, or acquisition channel might not be relevant to track.

Metric that I would track:

• Time to First Booking: Average time taken by users to make their first booking after signing up. Measures the efficiency of the onboarding process in guiding users towards their first transaction, which is a crucial milestone indicating user activation.
• Checkout Page Dropout Rate: It is essential to track Payment Gateway Dropout Rate. This will enable us to deep dive on what challenges a customer is facing. One of the reason could be non availability of desired e-wallet service.
• Number of tickets / week: Total count of tickets booked through FlixBus within a specific week. What is the WoW (week-on-week) growth rate of the #tickets being sold. Higher numbers reflect increased user engagement, booking frequency, and potentially higher revenue generation.
• Month-on-Month app download: Since FlixBus is in early scaling stage and has just entered the market, it is essential to track MoM app download increase, or website usage to understand if the acquisition channel strategy is working.
• Demography wise drop out rate: Drop out rate here means that customer comes and reserve the bus seat or select from the pool of buses, but do not complete the purchase. Tracking such customers age wise, location wise and gender wise will let us know the pain point for such segment.
• ​Net promoter score (NPS): It is important to gauge customer loyalty by asking how likely customers are to recommend a product or service to others. It categorizes respondents into Promoters, Passives, and Detractors
• Average Booking Frequency: Average number of bookings made by customers over a specific period. Tracking Number of bus bookings by l
• • Location,
  • Travel time,
  • Pickup & drop off points,
  • Android vs IOS vs website,
  • Sleeper vs Seats
• Repeat booking rate: Percentage of customers who make repeat bookings on FlixBus. Indicates the frequency of customer engagement and satisfaction with the booking experience. This can be done within a defined period
• • Weekly,
  • Monthly,
  • Quarterly
• Percentage of payment failures of each method: This will help to identify which payment methods are failing more and require attention.
• Seat reservation rate: Percentage of booked tickets that include seat reservations. It is important to calculate this metric as it indicates adoption of seat reservation among FlixBus users.
• Cancelations & refunds: Number of bookings that are canceled by customers. It is an important metric to consider as it Indicates customer dissatisfaction, changes in travel plans, or issues with service quality. Action for this should be to analyze reasons for cancellations, improve service offerings, and implement policies to minimize cancellations
• Channel wise Acquisition: Since FlixBus is in early scaling stage, it is important to measure the success rate of different acquisition channels. Collective analysis will help us to know which marketing channel is worth spending money and will lead to increase user base.
• Another metric I would calculate involves users who book FlixBus for travel from X to Y but opt for other operators for the return trip. This analysis provides insights into bus driver/operator behaviour, the range of travel services offered, user preferences, and areas for potential improvement. These customers can provide valuable feedback and insights into why they prefer one-way bookings over round-trip options. Factors such as the need for flexible travel plans, alternative return transportation, and pricing considerations are key aspects that can be understood through this analysis.

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